Probing CO2 emission in Chengdu based on STRIPAT model and Tapio decoupling

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary driver of global warming. Conducting CO2 emission projections and identifying decoupling relationship between economic growth are significant guidelines for assessing carbon reduction measures green development. This study accounts Chengdu's from 2009-2020 in terms energy activities, industrial processes, waste disposal, photosynthetic spaces, then follows STIRPAT model to project four scenarios 2021-2035 uses Tapio analyze status. The results show that: (1) increase consumption leading cause Chengdu. (2) Population intensity will be main influencing factors emission. 1% change population 1.617128%, 1.355371% changes emission; (3) Chengdu can meet its commitment peak by 2025. Business as usual (BAU) best choice achieve low-carbon At peak, 66.04 million tons, per capita 3.15 tons. (4) During outlook period, weak strong decoupling, reaching an ideal state. Measures focused on stimulating more potential momentum, strengthening transformation all aspects production life help a excellent peak. greatly reference peaking process other cities worldwide.